Gimbol's diatribe and screed

Why Dion is going to lose the next election

There are a couple of reasons and they are connected.

First, unless Dalton can get the native occupiers out of Douglas Estates, (land claim or no land claim) that will be the polarizing issue for Ontario. Dalton must go to the polls next fall and you can bet he's going to be starting the campaign in earnest anytime now. He can't expect to have this issue just disappear without a concerted effort by conservative activists to remind voters about Daltons two tier justice.


It also means that liberals in Ontario are going to be preoccupied on the provincial level till after the fall, they don't want to be working two campaigns. You can bet that the message will be communicated to his federal counterpart to stifle any action which could send the country into a federal election. It would just be one more thing that would get voters upset by being sent to the polls three times in three years, imagine.....grumpy voters....in Ontario.....I'm not making this up.

But how does this have anything to do with Stephane Dion? Stephane needs to do something very soon to prove to the liberal party members that they didn't choose him as the best of a bad lot. He needs to show that he can actually lead.
The only way that he can do that is if he can get the oppostion unified for a nonconfidence vote. That would mean sending Canadians to the polls for the third time in three years. Boy tough call that, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Now I don't expect Dion wants to fight an election anytime soon, but if he can't keep the various party factions under control (and there is a great many factions in the liberal party) he won't have a say.
Which leads to the other reason why Dion is going to have a tough time. Its about those "factions" and who brung em to the dance.
Kennedy's supporters want to have their boy in Parliament, they will be pushing hard to not only get him a safe seat to run in, but they want it done asap, before anyone starts taking a more critical look at his "so-called" qualifications.
Just to be clear though, I'm not talking about Kennedy, I'm talking about Justin Trudeau. Trudeau hasn't got a lot under his belt as far as political experience goes and he looks less like he would be the second coming of his father and more like the second coming of Bucky Dither's, or worse Joe Clark.
Then you have the establishment, they want to keep control of the party apparatus, to do that they need a guy on the inside. But if they are as smart as they claim to be, they won't want an election until they can get the resourses in place to fight an election. Those resourses are in Ontario, see Dalton and coming provincial election in the fall.

So now we get to see which faction is going to win out, but more importantly if Dion can be his own man. Frankly he doesn't have a lot of time, or opportunities to prove it. And when a liberal leader gets cornered and is faced with a decision they always get tripped up. Its part and parcel of trying to be all things to all people. Unless you never have to make a decision, this can work well and your leadership won't be questioned. But as it happened to Paul Martin, decision time came and went and he was found dithering. Its because of having a lack of principles that when the time comes to stand for something, they have nothing to stand for.

As proof that Dion is just as big a ditherer as the last guy, refer to how he handled the "nation" vote. Was he front and center with a stand on the issue right away, or was his intial response muddied, or was he really the last guy to say where he stood? In the after math of that issue there are claims and counter claims of who he did and didn't consult with.

The best indicator however is something quite innocuous. That of his dual citizenship.
His response is that he would give it up...maybe...but he isn't going to right now.
Not exactly a definite response is it?

But the very top reason Dion is going to get pummelled in the next election is how he responds when challenged. The example that will be making the conservative election ads is the clip of the liberal leadership debate in Montreal. The topic was the one the liberals feel secure that they can beat the conservatives with the environment. When Iggy challenged Dion "But Stephane, we didn't get it done" is going to be played and played and played.
It will go something like this.
Voice will say something like "what is the liberal record when they had a chance for 13 years? Lets ask a "prominent liberal"."
The clip of Iggy is played, the voice again cuts in and says

"and how does this liberal leader who was responsible for the environment respond when confronted with their record".
And this is the killer, the Dion response from same debate

"THATS NOT FAIR!!! YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT! YOU DON'T KNOW HOW HARD IT IS TO SET PRIORITIES".

Voice again, "not fair? You don't know what you are talking about? Too hard to set priorities?"
The ad cuts to a pic of Paul Martin and the voice comes in saying "where have Canadians seen this before?"
The beauty of it all is its quotes from the liberal leader and his deputy. The conservatives won't have to make any of it up. Matter of fact they could take a whole wack of quotes from any of the liberal "team" and make some killer ads.
Methinks Iggy will be featured prominently in them.

Its deja vu all over again.

Sucks to be them.

posted by gimbol @ 3:17 AM