Gimbol's diatribe and screed

Upcoming budget vote

Before everyone gives a sigh of relief that there won't be a spring election, just remember the vote hasn't been held yet.
Iggy has shown that good faith isn't something he holds near to his heart.
Don't put it past this guy to ditch at the last moment, he wants power.

Now some analysis.

Iggy's "demands" are just as Layton described them, a figleaf.
Frankly though it appears Iggy didn't think it through entirely.
Why would he legislate when and why the liberals will be tabling confidence votes?
Thats like starting a fight and telling your opponent the exact second you intend to throw the first punch.
Iggy likes to crow (much like Paul Martin) that he's a sharp cookie, but has yet to demonstrate his political prowness. He's shown he can pull off a hostile takeover, but he doesn't do democracy well.
What he's done is give Layton and Duceppe a reason to come after him much like the PC's and Reformers used to do. He'll get no support from them if he decides to have a non-confidence vote, and Harper ever the cool operator will throw out something contentous just before the liberals scheduled n/c motions.
Duceppe ever the trouble maker, will do something to antagonize the ROC just before Iggy heades for his confab coronation just to make life difficult for him, especially since the polls show the liberals second place behind the Bloc in Quebec.

Iggy has only one goal, one that doesn't take any outcome into consideration but one, that of becoming PM, but not being PM...much like his predecessor did.....whats his name and the guy before him. Due to his narrow field of vision, a great many details will escape him and when things start to happen that he didn't anticipate, he will panic. He wants the big chair, but he hasn't got a clue what he would do differently than Harper if he ever got there.
Why do I believe this?
Pride is Iggy's biggest weakness, and it will be his downfall because it makes him predictable.
Its easy for Harper to anticipate what Iggy will do.
Iggy by making pronouncements that Harper can't be trusted is admitting that he hasn't got a good read on what Harper will do.
That means he has to hang on for the ride and wait for a chance, hoping Harper doesn't throw some contentious legislation in his path.
Here's some possible examples:
Obama comes calling on Canada to stay on in Afghanistan. Harper agrees to ask Parliament by tabling a motion to extend the mission again. Does Iggy upset those in the liberal party that oppose the Afghan mission again, or does he step in line to ride Obama's coattails?
If Harper tables legislation to redefine official party status to only be granted to registered parties that are active in more than one province.
If Harper again tables a motion to remove party financing just before the liberals have scheduled their first n/c vote.

Labels: Liberal leadership race

posted by gimbol @ 6:51 PM