Opposition leadership race
With the admission from Bob Rae that he won't run for the leadership the media is now turning its attention elsewhere. Here are some observations about the political landscape:- We are not even half way through the current mandate of a majority government, lots of time between now and the next election. No amount of political manoeuvring by the opposition will cause an election, and to pretend otherwise will put the collective intelligence of the opposition in question, particularly whether they know how to add. This applies more so to the media.
- There are some pundits and media that have a soft spot for the old liberal party (as opposed to what it has become) and they make no effort to balance their reporting and commentary. I make this observation to base another that as of the moment that Bare-assed Bob confirmed he won't run for the leadership, these same legacy liberals immediately put the spot light on Justin Trudeau. They should keep their cards close to their chest, first Justin does not want to be scrutinized to much and provide a youtube moment for his critics or those that also have ambitions to become liberal leader.
- As for the young prince. As we are about to enter the summer recess, there are many in the Parliamentary Press gallery that will be desperately casting about for stories with a political connection and a party leadership race can keep them busy (and justifying a pay cheque) until the House reconvenes in the fall. Of those, all but a few actually, there is a desire to see a liberal saviour come to the fore and bring back the good old days. Again, the media shills looking to pave the way for another wave of "trudeaumania" should curb their expectations if they want him as liberal leader, or for that matter PM. The reason is that right now the only thing Justin can attest to as his legacy is that he will jump into the boxing ring for a three round charity event. Makes good photo-ops, however a photo-op is something you use for emotional appeal. This is a short term strategy, gets people paying attention so you can tell them what your plans as a candidate actually are....and this for liberals in the good old days was effective, because as long as you had a compliant media, the bad stuff, and the things you didn't want published either got relegated to the back pages or not reported at all. In a media environment where youtube, instant messaging, and blogs exist, this is not such a friendly environment to say different things to different parts of the country. The other detriment to the liberals of a Trudeau reboot is that Justin will be forced to campaign on the policies and record of his father. All the Trudeau record. At that time the majority of voters couldn't see the harm he was causing because the after effects came long after he left office. Now this may seem like an obvious observation, however I'm not looking at this from the point of view of the usual criticisms from the ROC, I'm pointing out that there is blow back that will come from Quebec. Do not underestimate Mucliar. The NDP will not willingly surrender its gains in Quebec even if the next liberal leader was a reincarnation of Karl Marx. If Mucliar perceived a weakness in the liberal party, he will exploit it. This includes using the past record of PET if it will damage Justin in Quebec. So if the media shilling for Justin as the next saviour (tm) they should understand the attacks won't be coming so much from the conservatives, but from the NDP...especially in Quebec.
- There is a recurring question in the media and the punditry about the possibility of the NDP and the lpc merging into one party. One pundit has suggested this issue would be even more divisive than the civil war between Chretien and Martin. Although I would agree with the premise that it would cause more damage, I disagree that its would be a new war. This battle has been going on since Mackenzie-King was leader of the liberal party. The object has been to obtain and hold power by any means necessary, to do that the liberals would dance with any political partner, present it as a compromise, say different things to different factions of the party, and never let one interest group take full control of the party apparatus except the establishment fortresses in Montreal and Toronto. This included bringing individuals into the party with beliefs not conducive to our parliamentary traditions, even those with a socialist bent, not to adopt their policies, but because they could secure the votes in constituencies where no support for the liberal party existed or was weak. The bringing in of these individuals was done on the caveat that they could achieve their goals if they joined up with a party that had a chance of forming government, and not to worry about the "old fogies" in the party because they could be shepherded into the senate to get them out of the way. Again works great if you have a compliant media and the different stories for different riding's never gets heard across the country. Welcome to the Internet age. The liberals sold their soul long ago, and because of it the hard left in the party is now calling in the mortgage. They voted liberal, they got liberal governments elected, now they want a socialist government to implement all the goodies socialists promise, but have yet to deliver...free of charge of course. Digress a bit, the point is that the civil war in the liberal party isn't between two men fighting over the leadership, its about the socialist faction that was promised power in exchange for votes, and the establishment blu-lib faction that wants to retain power in the Toronto-Montreal corridor. For the blu-lib faction, a merger with the NDP is an option without an escape hatch, a burning of the bridge so to speak. They know and the socialists know that once done, the voter they like to refer to as "centrist" will see the new party as decidedly left wing, read not centrist. Therefore, those centrist voters are less likely to see the new party as a viable option. Secondly, a merger would create a political landscape of a two-party system, no mushy middle to present as a compromise position to the voter...liberals like to be able to present themselves as all things to all people..or there isn't one policy they would throw under the bus, or adopt in a heart beat if they saw public opinion going in that direction. In the liberals strategy book, resolving a problem is not the goal, using the problem as an emotional device to scare voters is. If you have a political landscape where the choice is yes or no, there is no middle ground to campaign on. That's why the liberal establishment doesn't want a merger, they would have to take a position, and in this scenario, its the socialist one. Why is this a problem? Take a look at Europe. If the question of a merger keeps coming up during the leadership race, the candidates will have to take a position. Basically outing themselves as either blu-lib, or socialist. Neither position is seen by the other as centrist after the decades of demonizing conservative or right wing policies by liberals and its legacy media. The socialist types will say the blu-libs are sell outs to the vision of trudeau and the blu-libs will say the socialists are too extremist to represent the liberal vision. The irony is that the liberal vision is not defined...they have spent so long being everything to everyone that now they stand for nothing.
- As for Bob Rae. The reason he decided not to run is political, as he said, not me. Let me parse that a bit. The political reason he decided not to run is the poll numbers. He can't generate enough support to revive the liberal party outside its current fortress. They believe someone else, lets say Justin, has a better chance. He's also not a "native son" of Quebec, and that's where they want to revive their party. Pay attention to whats going to happen in Quebec as the old rule of alternation is about to collide with the OMOV selection process. In order to maintain the alternation between franco and anglo leaders, the liberal party needs to control the selection process by maintaining the delegated convention with its "negotiated" leadership method. In a OMOV those that can bring the most votes, win the day. If the lpc allows the membership to use OMOV to go ahead, but the process is perceived to be corrupted, the membership and the voters at large will not see the new leader (no matter who it is) as legitimate, which will do far more damage than good. If the franco membership that sees its power base eroding to the west does not win the leadership, they will be considering membership where the party leadership is a native son. Bob saw this and knew that as an anglo-phone from Ontario, he couldn't gain support in Quebec. For that reason he decided not to run, regardless of what the executive decided on. The LPC is praying that enough prominent candidates from Quebec throw their hat in the ring so that 1-It doesn't look like a another coronation, and 2-the next leader is from Quebec.
- The media is going to be desperate for a story.
- Every word and gesture of Justin Trudeau will be given laser like scrutiny.
- The NDP will be working to undermine anyone in the liberal party they see as a threat.
- The NDP-lib merger will solidify Canada as a two-party state (too bad lizzy may).
- The liberals will do almost anything to ensure their next leader is from Quebec.
Some day soon I'll post another screed on how Justin is trying to convince the great unwashed of the liberal party he's the anti-establishment candidate.
Labels: Liberal leadership race
posted by gimbol @ 8:15 AM
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