Gimbol's diatribe and screed

The next election timing

Hangs on two factors now.

The speed with which the Senate passes C-288 and the 60 days to table the report after it becomes law, more specifically that report.

The Senate is going to drag its heels to make sure it becomes law by the summer, their strategy is that once the temperature soars they can beat on Harper with the backdrop of a summer heat wave to highlight the imminent crisis of global warming* (note: when the temparture rises above 20C the talking point changes from climate change to global warming). The reality check comes of course in that Harper has 60 days to table a report. Read that 60 days after it becomes law. The other hit against the liberal senators is that senate reform bill the boys in the red chamber have been holding up for almost a year, the meme almost writes itself doesn't it?

Now about that report.
The liberals didn't think Harper was going to table a report that painted a rosy picture I hope.
No sir, you won't be getting a "all things to all people, sunshine-and-lollipops-if-we-just-hold-hands-and-sing-kumbiya-we-can-save-the-planet" report. What will be in it will be the unvarnished truth about why the liberals where so afraid to take action, or to be more matter of fact, why it was the antithesis to the liberal modus operandi for winning votes throught the use of parish pump policy by poll numbers.
To save a great deal of time explaining this I'll jump ahead to the next national campaign...you can figure out on your own how we'll get there.

NDP rolls into some borough of the GTA and explains that we need to take action now on global warming (details to follow on the plan of action but it centers on following Kyoto to the letter).

Liberals roll into same spot the next day saying how the conservatives are just recycling old liberal plans that they cut the year before, some mention that if the conservatives hadn't wasted a year we could achieve our targets. Their plan also short on details but it too involves following Kyoto to the letter.

Greens do the same the next day, emphasis is placed on the point that only they have consistently advanced the need for action since day one. Ditto on Kyoto to the "t" with the caveat that they where the first to say it needed to be done.

Then Harper comes to town. Tells the crowd bluntly that if they want to see gas rationing, if you want restrictions on personal vehicle use (read:if you have access to the TTC or GO Transit you can't use a personal vehicle), then you vote for the opposition parties. If you want to be able to still drive your kids to soccer practice vote conservative (think like a soccermom with the prospect of little Janey having to travel to practice via the TTC during twilight hours you'll get the idea it's about security). You'll know what I mean if you've ever had to use public transit. A normal trip that by car would take 15 minutes becomes one hour. Now imagine how that fits into the normal two income family in the GTA. If mom and dad both work inside the city, suddenly they are faced with the prospect of a liberal government forcing them to take the TTC to work. Harper makes it clear that Kyoto is not a religion and it is not the only way.... by the way here's our five point plan.
Place that scenario in any of the MTV cities and you just handed Harper his majority.

Saving the planet and wearing that green ribbon on your lapel looks good during the photo-op but when it comes time to follow through on the plan of action somebody has to take a hit. The hit is always comparable with the size of the plan and the target to achieve.
The liberals have tied their next campaign to convincing Canadians to swallow some bitter medicine...not exactly a positive message now is it.

However the real reason this is going to hit the liberals in a nightmarish way is that the conservatives have been able in the space of less than three months to define Dion and his party as rather than being the party of the center to be the one that is tied exclusively to the Kyoto Protocol (sort of how the old Reform party was forever etched in the minds of Canadians to be under the control of a dark vast rightwing conspiracy). That leaves them nowhere to grow unless they change strategy.

Sucks to be them.

Labels: Global tax regime

posted by gimbol @ 4:09 AM