The big loophole in the Kyoto Protocol
Read
this article in the FP on friday, I must say its spot on.
First I did a bit of research on the writer Mr Herman and he is a lawyer by trade, has written on trade issues and global trade in particular. He's worked for UWO doing some work for the Ivey School. From the writers perspective this isn't one of Al Gore's disciples.
But I digress.
The article is in a well writen brief basically lays out an arguement that all we have to do as a nation to avoid being penalized under this "international agreement" is to rag the puck.
The part that nails it is this:
"But here's the rub. All this depends on the Kyoto parties defining the terms of the "second commitment period," post-2012. Without agreement on this post-2012 period, the compliance committee is just a paper tiger. It can't enforce anything against Canada because, so far at least, the period after 2012 remains a huge void.
Nothing has been agreed."
So if there is no agreement amoung the signatories before the deadline of 2012, nobody gets penalized. Let me be specific, if the rest of the signatories can't get the major emitters to sign on to a plan that is going to potentially constrict them economically the protocol is basically dead.
....Gee I can't see any reason why so-called major emitters like China, India, and the US would be reluctant to sign on.....sacasm off.
Long ago I prescribed to the idea that there is always someone else somewhere in this world that is smarter, or stronger, or wiser than me. So if Lawrence can figure this out, so did others including those in a position of power.....its they just didn't or can't say so. I'll go further and name names.
Jean Chretien knew when he signed us up without any debate in the house.
Oddly this logic that until the "major" emitters agree to targets Kyoto will not achieve its so-called goal is the type of talk we've been hearing from Harper and his past and present enviroment ministers. Go figure, they understand international agreements.
This begs the next question that I feel warrants some investigation.
Who might be the people that don't want to realize this reality?
Labels: Global tax regime, kyoto
Liberals new useful idiot part 3
I'm not going to preface any commentary on whether May should apologize to Harper or not.
What I will say is that if Harper is equated to Chamberlain, then an extention of the logic to what group of people are equated to nazi's can also be assumed to May's statement.
I will also say that in her official capacity, she cannot speak for herself alone but those that care to share the stage with her.
Again I won't demand an apology, or retraction.
However, I believe that Stephane Dion and particularly Glen Pearson need to make it clear whether they believe just as Elizabeth May does, that any of us who are skeptics of Kyoto should be equated with nazi's?
A collorary to this is the recent spike in gas prices.
You think this is bad? If Lizzy has her way the price at the pumps is going to be three times what it is now. This seems timely that the local A channel nightly news ran a piece on how an increase in gas prices is going to impinge on the volunteers that assist Meals-on-wheels and the local food bank.
Would this be the law of unintended consequences?
Labels: Global tax regime, kyoto, May's little green monster
Here it comes
Looks like Harper's strategy to make the election about the effects of Kyoto are coming to fruitition.
link"Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, is reporting the following details from the study, which he said has been backed by independent economists:The economy would shrink by 4.2 per cent if Kyoto is implemented. "It says it will cause a recession on par with the 1981-82 recession." Job losses will total 275,000 by 2009 Electricity costs will jump by 50 per cent by 2010 Gasoline costs will jump by 60 per cent almost immediately, and Home heating oil will double."
Yep, and with the opposition parties falling over themselves to be "Kyoto, just Kyoto, and nothign but Kyoto" it will be hard for them to worm their way out of that corner without changing startegy halfway through the campaign.
Labels: Conservative majority, Global tax regime, kyoto
Harper will soon get his excuse to call a confidence motion
Proof Dion has the Martin gang working for him."Dion is calling on Prime Minister Stephen Harper to endorse the revised version of the Clean Air Act including its plan to have
a carbon budget for Canada that will help the country honour its Kyoto commitments."
Smooth move exlax. You and every opposition party leader is beating the Kyoto drum so loud you can't see the conservatives defining you as being Kyoto and only about Kyoto.
"Mr Dion can you explain how a global tax regime reduces green house gas?"
Labels: Conservative majority, Global tax regime, kyoto
The next election timing
Hangs on two factors now.
The speed with which the Senate passes C-288 and the 60 days to table the report after it becomes law, more specifically that report.
The Senate is going to drag its heels to make sure it becomes law by the summer, their strategy is that once the temperature soars they can beat on Harper with the backdrop of a summer heat wave to highlight the imminent crisis of global warming* (note: when the temparture rises above 20C the talking point changes from climate change to global warming). The reality check comes of course in that Harper has 60 days to table a report. Read that 60 days after it becomes law. The other hit against the liberal senators is that senate reform bill the boys in the red chamber have been holding up for almost a year, the meme almost writes itself doesn't it?
Now about that report.
The liberals didn't think Harper was going to table a report that painted a rosy picture I hope.
No sir, you won't be getting a "all things to all people, sunshine-and-lollipops-if-we-just-hold-hands-and-sing-kumbiya-we-can-save-the-planet" report. What will be in it will be the unvarnished truth about why the liberals where so afraid to take action, or to be more matter of fact, why it was the antithesis to the liberal modus operandi for winning votes throught the use of parish pump policy by poll numbers.
To save a great deal of time explaining this I'll jump ahead to the next national campaign...you can figure out on your own how we'll get there.
NDP rolls into some borough of the GTA and explains that we need to take action now on global warming (details to follow on the plan of action but it centers on following Kyoto to the letter).
Liberals roll into same spot the next day saying how the conservatives are just recycling old liberal plans that they cut the year before, some mention that if the conservatives hadn't wasted a year we could achieve our targets. Their plan also short on details but it too involves following Kyoto to the letter.
Greens do the same the next day, emphasis is placed on the point that only they have consistently advanced the need for action since day one. Ditto on Kyoto to the "t" with the caveat that they where the first to say it needed to be done.
Then Harper comes to town. Tells the crowd bluntly that if they want to see gas rationing, if you want restrictions on personal vehicle use (read:if you have access to the TTC or GO Transit you can't use a personal vehicle), then you vote for the opposition parties. If you want to be able to still drive your kids to soccer practice vote conservative (think like a soccermom with the prospect of little Janey having to travel to practice via the TTC during twilight hours you'll get the idea it's about security). You'll know what I mean if you've ever had to use public transit. A normal trip that by car would take 15 minutes becomes one hour. Now imagine how that fits into the normal two income family in the GTA. If mom and dad both work inside the city, suddenly they are faced with the prospect of a liberal government forcing them to take the TTC to work. Harper makes it clear that Kyoto is not a religion and it is not the only way.... by the way here's our five point plan.
Place that scenario in any of the MTV cities and you just handed Harper his majority.
Saving the planet and wearing that green ribbon on your lapel looks good during the photo-op but when it comes time to follow through on the plan of action somebody has to take a hit. The hit is always comparable with the size of the plan and the target to achieve.
The liberals have tied their next campaign to convincing Canadians to swallow some bitter medicine...not exactly a positive message now is it.
However the real reason this is going to hit the liberals in a nightmarish way is that the conservatives have been able in the space of less than three months to define Dion and his party as rather than being the party of the center to be the one that is tied exclusively to the Kyoto Protocol (sort of how the old Reform party was forever etched in the minds of Canadians to be under the control of a dark vast rightwing conspiracy). That leaves them nowhere to grow unless they change strategy.
Sucks to be them.
Labels: Global tax regime
