Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Did the wheels just fall off Justin's wagon?

Forgive me for being a broken record, but the last week has shown why Justin is already defined as the one to continue his father's legacy, and as such will be taken to task for all the garbage Pierre never got called on.
I don't have to repeat all of it, its on record what he said and did not apologize for.
I repeat he did not apologize for it, he only tried to qualify his statement.

But lets not dwell on last week, lets get to more recent history.

Lets concentrate on today's anti-Harper rant by someone that's a by-product of legislated bilingualism.
Marc Garneau.
Did he announce any policy?  No.
Did he say what he would like to do as PM?  No.
Did he celebrate past achievements?  No.
What he did was repeat the trash talk that was spouted off last week by David McGuinty and by Justin Trudeau when he thought nobody in the ROC was listening.
Different candidate, same message, its almost like they are getting their talking points from someone that  used to write bad punk rock lyrics.

But lets digress a bit.

The field of candidates is filling out and the media flakes are already declaring Justin the leader.

Let me point out the misconceptions and mistakes:

  1. The Justin media is trying to make Justin out to be some Canadian version of Barack Obama. Which is stretching the bounds of credibility as its common knowledge where Justin grew up and the economic conditions under which he went through life.
  2. There will be a point in the race where Justin is going to have to answer a hard question where the answer will have to be more than a recital of Hamlet.  It will happen during the leadership debates, and the first one to challenge Justin will be attacked mercilessly by the media that rarely finds anything to criticise liberals for.
  3. Garneau has advanced in his career, not because of his ability, but because he was a by product of enforced bilingualism.  He got put at the head of the line in Maritime Command because he was a francophone from Quebec, shortlisted as Canada's rep in the shuttle program, and made head of Canada's Space Agency for the same reason.  Then he was given a nice safe seat to run in, Westmount, where a three toed sloth could win if he got the liberal nomination.  Short answer is, that he was nominated not for any policy he advanced but because of his name...just like Justin...see a pattern here?
  4. The liberals are doing their damnedest to retain the unwritten rule of alternation.  This is why you don't see any high profile candidates from outside of Quebec this go...and I'm sorry but Martha Hall Findlay is not high profile, she's the perennial female candidate that can be depended on to run so as to ensure there is a female candidate.  There is no way to hide the fact that this is a coronation.  Garneau isn't running because he thinks he can win, he's running because he was told to.  They need someone with a high enough profile from Quebec so that Justin doesn't have to face a challenger from outside of Quebec, thereby taking the chance of an anglo winning the leadership again.  Its the same reason they didn't want Rae running for leader, had nothing to do with his ability, and everything to do with the fact that he wasn't from Quebec.
  5. The political dynamic in Quebec and central Canada is starting to see a paradigm shift.  The choice in Quebec was always one where the voters had one side telling them "better to tolerate a few corrupt liberal politicians, then having the threat of separation hanging over our heads" and the other side saying "separation, but not quite yet, besides its better than having liberal corruption".  The elephant in the room was that the voter knew that both sides would be leveraging Ottawa to ante up because the ROC bought into the separatist threat.  This dynamic has changed, the corruption is not only running through the established parties, but that its known to run through the established parties, and the ROC doesn't buy the separatist threat anymore.  The end result is that Quebec voters realized they have a choice now.  Last election they voted NDP, not because they thought the NDP would form government, but because they expected them to be king makers in a minority parliament.  Then reality hit and they understood that Harper got his majority without them.  That reality still holds, and whether the libs pick a francophone or not, as long as they spout of the angry rhetoric about Quebec owning the country, they should not expect to win any seats outside of Quebec.
  6. The first leadership contender that criticises Justin will be dog piled by the liberal media. The most likely perpetrator will be someone with blu-lib credentials,  I'm betting on Garneau to be the one to do it.
  7. There will be many Youtube moments during the race which the conservatives will use for many a truth ad.

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