Did the wheels just fall off Justin's wagon?
Forgive me for being a broken record, but the last week has shown why Justin is already defined as the one to continue his father's legacy, and as such will be taken to task for all the garbage Pierre never got called on.
I don't have to repeat all of it, its on record what he said and did not apologize for.
I repeat he did not apologize for it, he only tried to qualify his statement.
But lets not dwell on last week, lets get to more recent history.
Lets concentrate on today's anti-Harper rant by someone that's a by-product of legislated bilingualism.
Marc Garneau.
Did he announce any policy? No.
Did he say what he would like to do as PM? No.
Did he celebrate past achievements? No.
What he did was repeat the trash talk that was spouted off last week by David McGuinty and by Justin Trudeau when he thought nobody in the ROC was listening.
Different candidate, same message, its almost like they are getting their talking points from someone that used to write bad punk rock lyrics.
But lets digress a bit.
The field of candidates is filling out and the media flakes are already declaring Justin the leader.
Let me point out the misconceptions and mistakes:
- The Justin media is trying to make Justin out to be some Canadian version of Barack Obama. Which is stretching the bounds of credibility as its common knowledge where Justin grew up and the economic conditions under which he went through life.
- There will be a point in the race where Justin is going to have to answer a hard question where the answer will have to be more than a recital of Hamlet. It will happen during the leadership debates, and the first one to challenge Justin will be attacked mercilessly by the media that rarely finds anything to criticise liberals for.
- Garneau has advanced in his career, not because of his ability, but because he was a by product of enforced bilingualism. He got put at the head of the line in Maritime Command because he was a francophone from Quebec, shortlisted as Canada's rep in the shuttle program, and made head of Canada's Space Agency for the same reason. Then he was given a nice safe seat to run in, Westmount, where a three toed sloth could win if he got the liberal nomination. Short answer is, that he was nominated not for any policy he advanced but because of his name...just like Justin...see a pattern here?
- The liberals are doing their damnedest to retain the unwritten rule of alternation. This is why you don't see any high profile candidates from outside of Quebec this go...and I'm sorry but Martha Hall Findlay is not high profile, she's the perennial female candidate that can be depended on to run so as to ensure there is a female candidate. There is no way to hide the fact that this is a coronation. Garneau isn't running because he thinks he can win, he's running because he was told to. They need someone with a high enough profile from Quebec so that Justin doesn't have to face a challenger from outside of Quebec, thereby taking the chance of an anglo winning the leadership again. Its the same reason they didn't want Rae running for leader, had nothing to do with his ability, and everything to do with the fact that he wasn't from Quebec.
- The political dynamic in Quebec and central Canada is starting to see a paradigm shift. The choice in Quebec was always one where the voters had one side telling them "better to tolerate a few corrupt liberal politicians, then having the threat of separation hanging over our heads" and the other side saying "separation, but not quite yet, besides its better than having liberal corruption". The elephant in the room was that the voter knew that both sides would be leveraging Ottawa to ante up because the ROC bought into the separatist threat. This dynamic has changed, the corruption is not only running through the established parties, but that its known to run through the established parties, and the ROC doesn't buy the separatist threat anymore. The end result is that Quebec voters realized they have a choice now. Last election they voted NDP, not because they thought the NDP would form government, but because they expected them to be king makers in a minority parliament. Then reality hit and they understood that Harper got his majority without them. That reality still holds, and whether the libs pick a francophone or not, as long as they spout of the angry rhetoric about Quebec owning the country, they should not expect to win any seats outside of Quebec.
- The first leadership contender that criticises Justin will be dog piled by the liberal media. The most likely perpetrator will be someone with blu-lib credentials, I'm betting on Garneau to be the one to do it.
- There will be many Youtube moments during the race which the conservatives will use for many a truth ad.
Labels: Diatribes and screed's
This will be how many leaders of the opposition?
Chretien used to love taunting the leader of the opposition on their first day on the job stating that he looked forward to working with the current one and the next one as well.
So how many are we at now?
After Martin there was an intermn, then Dion,then Iggy, now Mulcair.
The NDP seems eager to have their new leader take some swipes and do some verbal damage against the PM, which oddly from what the mule says contridicts that.
But I digress.
Right now I'm not going to predict what Thomas will or will not do, what I will do is comment on what I've observed.
Mulcair (the mule) is similar in his approach to Paul Martin, specifically he's of the Quebec political class. A class of politician that is adept at throwing rivals (even within their own party) under the bus. The mule apparently does not play well with others as demonstrated with his history in the Charest cabinet, a career shortened when Jean decided to move Thomas to a portfolio that the mule felt was a demotion. That caused the mule to take his bat and ball and go home. However, being a career politician in Quebec, the mule was stuck on the horns of a dilema. See about the time he left provincial politics the federal liberal party was going through some difficulties over some misappropriation of progam funding, end of story is that it wasn't a good time to be a liberal politician in Quebec. So he did what any enterprising individual quebec politico does, he looked for an opportunity to co-opt somebody else.
He found the perfect foil in Jack Layton. Think about it, NDP wants to capitalize on the liberals loss of support in Quebec among the fair-weather federalists that could no longer count on a federalist option of the liberals to bring home the bacon. And there being no NDP organization in Quebec to speak of, a federal party ripe for a take over by co-opting where those that see Canada as a power sharing agreement between two nations, will be able to function unencumbered by the party apparatus from the ROC centered in Quebec. The voters in Quebec, sharp enough to see an easy way to power, easily would hand a safe liberal seat to an ex-lib under that NDP banner. They see a takeover of a federalist party run by anglo idealists too blinded by making inroads in Quebec to understand the mistake Mulroney made when he signed Lucien Bouchard's nomination because he wanted a Quebec luetenant that could guarantee the seats..even if it meant making promises he could never deliver. Jack, bless his heart, knew that his time on this earth was limited, and could promise the mule whatever he wanted without worrying about having to deliver, for example say reopening the constitution to give Quebec's political class its holy grail an enshrined distinct society clause (whatever they would call it matters not, it would be the constitutional arrangement where there is Quebec and the ROC, and everything...but the bill for it...is split 50-50).
Thomas being the same type of operator that Paul Martin is, likely got to work on his leadership camapaign the day after Jack signed his nomination papers. Without any competition in Quebec for supporters, he used his political connections. Its important to note that in Quebec, people don't vote based on ideology, they vote based on who can deliver. Theres a whole litany of screed I could go on to explain why this arrangement has come to pass, but rather that do that I'll sum it up to one statement. Quebec has had an arrangement where they learned that the number of ridings they have in their province has a value to federal elections such that they are able to hold the ROC ransom by virtue of that many seats help decide the outcome of an election. They never vote based on the policy of a party save one. That party will gain power in the HoC, and once they do, that government is given a list of demands. The mule understands this dynamic, and has played the voters in Quebec like a harp.
The point of going on this long exposition is this:
The mule didn't need to win the leadership of the NDP tonight, he only needed to be in contention, to be seen as someone that could win. His real goal wasn't to unite the base of the NDP behind him either, he only needed enough to add to what he has wrapped up in Quebec.
His actual goal is to take over the liberal party. Not a merger or a agreement, a takeover and hostile if neccessary.
He knows the liberal party base, and he is familar with the partisans that inhabit the establishment and that they will not willingly submit to an agreement where they have to water down the wine. His intentions I believe are to take over the party riding by riding.
Sounds a bit tinfoil hat right?
I can understand that, its just a prognostication based on assumption, so have to wait for the events to play themselves out.
Heres how I see it working, and why I see a similarity with Paul Martin.
Martin undermined Chretien by getting control of the ridings. My guess is that right now there are some Mulcair supporters out selling liberal memberships to make sure when the lpc leadership is declared, there will be 50% support for a motion to merge with the NDP. Matters not if its successful, just that it makes the floor of the lpc convention to get voted on.
Mulcair can pretend he isn't interested, but the lpc could be so divided by that time all it owuld take is a symbolic gesture like say a few of the remaining liberal caucus joining the NDP. Just enough that they no longer can retain official status in the HoC. Its symbolism that matters.
Once the ridings go NDP, the mule will point out how his party has momentum, which about this time would be about a year before the next federal election.
Now why would any of this be plausible?
Okay, try this.
You have the NDP and its supporters that have tasted power (coalition) and they are tired of oppostion, they are also tired of playing second fiddle to the liberals. The liberals, having lost three elections now, and having finished behind the NDP, are upset and angry at being denied what they feel is their birthright. Folks like that tend to shift to actions that previously where unthinkable just last year.
So heres my advise to the folks on the right.
Do not just expect this guy to be like the last inept leaders of the opposition, he is experienced, however, he has some flaws that can be capitalized on.
He is a Quebec politician, that means he has some skeletons in his closet.
He is proud, and his pride will be his downfall.
There is no policy he won't ditch in a heartbeat if its in his path to power. He can do this without worrying about his leftwing base as they will not vote liberal, and if as the media finally figured out tonight (h/t to Bob Fife) that there is nobody but Bob Rae in the liberal party that is in a position to lead them to power, where will the base go with there vote...Lizzy May and the Green's?.....really?
But the biggest obsticle to the mule is that he is a Quebec politician and does not have a lot of experience politically outside of Quebec where people vote not on who brings home the bacon, but on ideological positions.
The internet does not allow federal leaders to say one thing in Quebec and something else outside of Quebec and get away with it anymore..this ain't 1967 and he ain't no PET.
Talk of imposing a carbon tax may buy votes in Quebec, because they hear that as a carbon tax on the ROC to help Quebec pay for its social programs. Just ask S. Dion how that worked.
So I expect the honey moon will last until the media starts looking for something to report..say like a caucus member for speaking about an NDP policy that the mule finds inconvenient.
Thats all I got for know, things are going to get interesting.
Labels: Diatribes and screed's
falling liberal fortunes
First point of order. The false outrage over the conservative government making the census long form voluntary hasn't damaged them, nor has much else.
Harper has become not only teflon, he's also not some nancyboy like the opposition leaders and their pack of toadies.
Fantino is going to win the Vaughn by-election and Iggy will have to make plans to move out to make room for that other nancyboy Justin Trudeau.
Speaking of the foo-foo, he's been seen of late street walking with George Smitherman trying to help him stop Rob Ford. What George and Justin seem to miss (and the rest of hte liberal brain trust) is that its not the candidate that is what has voters stirred up, its the message. Toronto's problem is a spending problem, not a tax problem. Whoever wins is going to be forced to swallow some tough medicine, in the process the mayor of TO will no doubt alienate every social group, union, and left wing cause within a 500 km radius of the big smoke. They will have no choice because the creditor will tell them they have to cut, and if they don't the creditor's will foreclose. Soit doesn't matter if its George or Rob, they have to cut. The question Toronto voters have to ask themselves is this. Who do you believe has the guts to actually stare down the special interests.
My money's on the fatman.
But I digress.
Iggy's been of late singing the "fiscal conservative" meme. His problem is that soon Harper will throw down the gaunlet of eliminating the political subsidy. Kind of hard to accuse the guy who actually kept a promise to cut the GST, of not being fiscally prudent when you are the successor to the guy that promised to "kill da GST" and then failed to do so.
Labels: Diatribes and screed's
