The coalition that the liberals don't want
Congrats liberals.If Jack gets his way he'll be in the drivers seat in a coalition.
Here's the rub that none of you guys had the cognizance to understand.
See if the liberals are not in the drivers seat, that coalition isn't happening.
All Harper has to do is convince enough liberals to support his throne speech if he gets another minority.
This observation comes down to this.
Conservatives consider another minority win, a win, end of statement.
So if Harper increases his seat count but, doesn't get his majority, the house is still his.
Is Jack going to try to sieze power if he comes in second place, or will he be satisfied being leader of the opposition for a couple of years while the liberals tear themselves to pieces in yet another leadership race.
Point two.
The conservative base also understands that the talk of Harper being gone if he doesn't win a majority, is talk coming from folks that will never vote conservative.
Meaning, they want Harper gone because they can't defeat a known quantity with an unknown. We know that if its a minority the opposition would force a nonconfidence vote the moment the conservatives selected a new leader, we won't be letting that happen.
Here's how a coalition under Jack Layton would fare.
He won't have the seats even with the liberals to take power, he will need the support of the Bloc. And that my friends will make any coalition DOA.
By the way, those promises Jack made to the closet/separatists to reopen the consititution are going to sink his ship when Mulclair tries to oust him.
The basis of that observation is that Mulroney did the same thing when he convinced Bouchard to run as a PC and a bevy of closet separatists to gain his majority. It backfired when Mulroney realized after the second attempt at constitutional reform teh ROC wasn't in the mood to give the closet separatists what they wanted, constitutional recognition that Quebec get 50% control of Canada. The same bevy of closet separatists are running in Quebec for the NDP now.
Here's the problem they can't seem to grasp. The ROC knows its a ruse, the separation threat that is, and we know that as an empty threat, its purpose had nothing to do with the stated intent, and everything to do with leveraging more cash out of Ottawa.
See, we in the ROC understand that if you spend more money than you have, things will fall apart. Quebecers seem to have a hard time understanding that the reason their infrastructure is falling apart, is because 1- they didn't have good oversight over the costs, and 2 - they've spread their tax base so thin (to fund all the goodies they want to have) they can't fund the needs.
Their solution is that they want to "opt out" of federal standards, meaning they want the cash, but not the oversight that comes with it.
But I digress.
With this bunch in the NDP caucus, you can already feel the divide runing through Quebec.
If Jack gets his coaliton, bet money on it the life span of it will be 2 weeks before we are into another election.
Labels: free advice for Ignatieff, Quebec politics
posted by gimbol @ 6:00 PM
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