A new beginning....seriously?
That is essentially what conservatives are being fed by those that will never vote for us.
Now the lesson.
The conservative party didn't lose the election because of how they where running the country, it was that the liberal convinced enough of the soft NDP vote that the only way to get rid of the enemy was to vote liberal.
The liberals capitalized on the NDP efforts to convince blu-liberals that they where not socialists. This made the narrative of Mulcair going soft on progressive ideology, hence the meme used of Mulcair implementing Stephen Harper's budget. It closed the deal for the soft NDP vote when Justin admitted he was going to run a deficit. But here's the trick, he pulled out the spectre of the "evil one percent" and that they would be made to pay. To the progressive leftist, all the worlds ills can be cured if you just go after those other's that stole from the poor and less fortunate.......well for them its reality that wealth isn't something that's created, for them the government needs to make sure life is fair for everyone, and if someone got rich, well they must have done something illegal, and if not illegal, they must have unfairly taken advantage of some poor unfortunate victim, the environment, or some other perpetually offended group.
But this is what the liberals have done every election they have won. They use the NDP as the farm team.
Mulcair made the mistake of trying to take the NDP to the middle when he didn't have to. Yeah the guy can win a leadership, and he can be as charming or as angry as he wants, and nothing will change.
No what the NDP has to do is forget about the mushy middle if they ever want to make it out of perpetual status as supporting role for the liberal party.
Now I won't write them off, even though they are in third place, but they have to realize the chemistry of the Canadian electorate specifically how the laurentian elite like things. Before I go further, let me be clear that when I use the term L.E. I'm not suggesting that there is some secret society that meets in secret to plot the subjugation of the country. No, the term refers to a section of the population that see's itself as the rightful heirs to the management of the country. They don't have any outward dislike of the rest of the voting public, but they feel in an almost aristocratic sense, that the great unwashed is just not capable of running things the "right way". In their world view the great unwashed would try to change things, heavens they might even try to reform the senate so that the members in that chamber would be ....gasp....elected.
Perish the thought.
But just as they are protective of the institution they feel entitled to, they also feel the NDP will never be main stream and they will never believe a socialist when he says he will balance the books...a real socialist will never balance the books, if say so he must be lyin....and that my friends is why Tommy lost.
Tom didn't follow Layton's strategy and time his push from the left when Justin shifted to the right.
Justin, or at least his team (cause I'm not buying that he knows what he's doing) knew the only way they could achieve any political ground was to nullify any attacks from the left flank.
Blu-libs would ignore their instincts telling themselves that he can't be the economic disaster that his dad was, that and the over riding desire to win at all costs. The left, they just hated Harper and where ready to jump to the first parade with the best poll numbers.
Now there is a silver lining...there always is.
Justin's thing is about being liked by all the cool kids, which is great if your one of those boy bands that won one of those talent contests Simon Cowell puts on.
Now comes the boring stuff, like running a government, running legislation through the process, debates in Parliament, and question period.
Justin is already demonstrating how tone deaf he is with his promise to bring 25,000 refugees out of Syria into Canada by Christmas. This promise is completely political with political objectives, not humanitarian.
That's right, being human has nothing to do with it, when concerns about security checks and finding accommodations for them is an after thought, it means the only thing the liberals are interested in is deconstructing the notion that Justin no idea what he's doing. This is not only foolish, but a dereliction of duty.
Even if they can get the number, this can still end badly. If the accommodations are insufficient or substandard to the point that these refugees suffer ill health, or if some of the migrants come here in bad faith.
Point is that even if they get the numbers, there will be ample opportunity for this to go south badly and as it was his promise, and he insisted that he was ready for this job right now, they can't expect the conservatives to just give Justin a chance.
He made this one himself he will own it.
Labels: Chastin Introdo
Duffy trial
The media seems to be going overtime building expectations that this is the trial of the decade.
Such media attention that you would think Mike Duffy was an an ex-Minister charged with fraud or a deputy-minister charged with producing child porn
But with everything that gets reported by the punditry and repeated by like-minded media outlets, there is a goal.
The goal is to subject conservatives to doubts about Harper, much like the liberals where forced to endure over the revelations uncovered by the AG report on the Sponsorship program. The net result of that was that it brought the civil war raging within the liberal party out in the open. This is the goal the punditry and liberal partisans wish for.
Here's the problem.
First: Duffy is on trial not the Harper government. Unlike the sponsorship scandal, Duffy wasn't operating as part of a scheme to channel government spending of a program to riding associations over several years. This is about improper filing of expense accounts, and by all appearances it would seem more senators, including ones not appointed by Harper, have also been playing loosey goosey with their expense claims.
Seeing as the media has now set the bar for what constitutes a "scandal" when it comes to senate expanse claims, and that Harper didn't appoint the liberal ones, it makes it hard to make the logical leap to assign blame to Harper. But hey, if they want to flog this dead horse.
Second: There is no split on the right, but there still exists one on the left. The split used to be in the liberal party, but its extended since the first coalition attempt to one between the LPC and the NDP. This split won't go away until the two parties merge, and that won't happen as long as the liberals cling to the myth of natural governing party and stops seeing the NDP as having only a supporting role.
Then there is the role of the media.
They want this to morph into a scandal, a big scandal, bigger than Adscam.
That's a big expectation to fill, and in a media environment filled with those annoying fact checking bloggers, the twitter-verse, and a 24/7 news cycle requiring new information to stay front and centre, the odds that this story is going to fall off the front page after a week is pretty good. This could cost some media their jobs if they get caught torquing a headline to feed the narrative. Keeping this narrative is going to take a lot of effort and the outlets are going to have to work hard at not only that but keeping attention off of those other stories that pop up, like ISIS, Ukraine, Iran, two provincial elections, a federal budget, an Ontario budget dealing with pending insolvency, etc. etc.
Lets also not forget the laurentian elite. They have a dog in this hunt. They resent that the guy running things is at heart a guy that would like to see the upper chamber reformed, and because the OLO wants the place abolished, they naturally gravitate to someone that will allow them to go back to business as usual, even to the point of releaving them of maintaining any partisan allegiance. They don't like the great unwashed poking their noses in and around the senate or being obligated to justify their seat in the senate to anyone but the one that brought them to the dance. So naturally they jumped at the opportunity to stick it to Harper, Duffy fit the bill. He spent a good deal of time on the Hill and was well known by journos and politicians alike, and what his personal quirks where as well..meaning they knew the day this guy got appointed they could lead him down the garden path and then burn him later. But without thinking they sowed the winds. Recall that Harper warned them not to make senate reform an election issue. But by airing all this dirty laundry, any voter paying attention, will see a need to fix the senate.
Now if this is a ballot question, you have two choices, to be technical three, but two for sure. Change the senate so it is more responsible (which is a Canadian tradition) or abolish. Oh I did say three, yeah try to tell the voter you intend on fixing the senates problems by keeping it the same, which is kind of difficult to do if you ejected them out of your caucus and relinquished any oversight at all.
So here's a possible scenario of how this will work out.
Duffy is found guilty of accounting errors and a slap on the wrist.
The pundits, and media having invested in the trial will push to make this an election issue.
Harper will offer reform, the same reform he attempted before, but this time for the popular vote component of the 50% - 7 provinces. If he recieves another majority he will accept it as a mandate to act.
Mulclair, not wanting to ceed any ground to leisuresuit larry, will take the NDP position of abolishing the Senate, with the burden of having to obtain unanimous consent.
That leaves the other guy having stand on the status quo, or support one of the other options, and have you ever heard Justin explain anything?
He warned them.
"don't let me make this an election issue"Labels: the free lunch crowd at it again
Free Markets and the middle class
Got two ideas that have been touted lately by the liberal left decrying about how unfair it is that publically traded companies have Executives that make millions. But I digress. The title of this post is where the afforementioned discussion goes if they dare to bring up the debate. Point one: Publically traded is not publically owned, example, BlackBerry, a publically traded company is beholden to its shareholders that voluntarily put up private money to invest in same in the prospect of recieving a return on investment. CBC, a publically owned corporation, is funded through non-voluntary contributions from the tax payer and does not have to turn a profit to keep the doors open. So lets review the latest regurgitated talking point. The public is apparently being taken advantage of by an apparent unfair advantage that top earners have over the middle class, and its not fair, cause it somehow violates the philosphy of what a fair market is. This is particularly odious for the middle class...or so they claim. Unfair is it? How is it a free market if the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation is awarded a billion a year in tax payers dollars to operate yet is still allowed to obtain advertising revenue? How is it anything but bad faith to argue for free markets, but not recognize the impediment imposed by supply management? Go do a search on the term "zap your frozen" for real disingenous bald face lying with regard to government regulated markets. Lets do a comparision to how much those executives are paid, who by the way are subject to a vote of confidence each year when a publically traded company has its yearly general meeting, and how many top bureaucrats are paid through government funding that are not subject to a vote of confidence...ever. You cannot preach fair markets and middle class values while at the same time advocate taking away the freedom of the market to decide by using the government to pick the market winners and losers
Which political ideology is this again?
When you examine what they stand for its becoming evident that the liberals really have lost their way. For example:
That prostitution is a noble trade and should not be referred to as human trafficing.
Drug users should be given a nice safe place to inject instead of stopping them from using the drugs in the first place.
That marijana is harmless, and that it should be legalized and taxed.
That to clean up the environment you must commodify it (Kyoto).
That adscam was just an anomaly.
That you can negotiate with terrorists.
That parents don't have the right to raise their own children.
That the senate is just fine the way it is.
That any constitutional change would be bad.
That the not with standing clause should be abolished because somebody might one day actually use it.
That all references to our historical traditions both military and with regard to the Crown are meaningless and should be abolished.
That abortion should never be limited, there should be a right to die, but celebrating life is equivalent to racism and or homophobia.
That the ban on reproductive technology should be lifted.
That a gun registry is going to stop crimes committed with unregistered weapons.
That private health care doesn't exist in Canada.
That using terms like "barbaric" to describe female genital mutilation is uncanadian.
That if a conservative senator repaid false claims its justification for asking the PM to resign, but if a liberal senator refuses to make the same reparations, its justification to allow him back into caucus.
That when an ex-DM of the education ministry gets arrested on charges of child pornography, no connection should be made to his involvement in producing a controversial sex-education policy being imposed in that province.
That SunNews, a private news broadcaster that produces 100% canadian content should be denied fee for carriage, but the Oprah Network which is based in Chicago USA should not.
That finding out the root causes of why terrorists hate us is more important than tracking down and arresting terrorists.
That if during a federal party leadership race, one candidate is allowed more time to get his "supporters" registered, this should in no way be construed as a coronation.
That even though Pierre Trudeau refused to serve during WWII you can claim he ran towards danger while criticising the RCMP for protecting the PM during a terrorist attack on Parliament Hill.
That communist chinese governments are something to be admired. That we should be sending winter advice to refugees trying to escape ISIS and not using military force against ISIS. That only the liberal party has the hereditary right to rule.
Labels: useful idiots
Liberals say the darndest things
Irony is Katheline Wynne commenting on sexual assault allegations against Bil Cosby, but remaining silent about the charges against her ex deputy minister of education Ben Levin.
Particularly in light of the contriversial sex ed curriculum he developed now being imposed in Ontario schools.
Labels: principles and idealism
Separated at birth?
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed the resemblance between George Sandusky and Benjamin Levin?
Did the wheels just fall off Justin's wagon?
Forgive me for being a broken record, but the last week has shown why Justin is already defined as the one to continue his father's legacy, and as such will be taken to task for all the garbage Pierre never got called on.
I don't have to repeat all of it, its on record what he said and did not apologize for.
I repeat he did not apologize for it, he only tried to qualify his statement.
But lets not dwell on last week, lets get to more recent history.
Lets concentrate on today's anti-Harper rant by someone that's a by-product of legislated bilingualism.
Marc Garneau.
Did he announce any policy? No.
Did he say what he would like to do as PM? No.
Did he celebrate past achievements? No.
What he did was repeat the trash talk that was spouted off last week by David McGuinty and by Justin Trudeau when he thought nobody in the ROC was listening.
Different candidate, same message, its almost like they are getting their talking points from someone that used to write bad punk rock lyrics.
But lets digress a bit.
The field of candidates is filling out and the media flakes are already declaring Justin the leader.
Let me point out the misconceptions and mistakes:
- The Justin media is trying to make Justin out to be some Canadian version of Barack Obama. Which is stretching the bounds of credibility as its common knowledge where Justin grew up and the economic conditions under which he went through life.
- There will be a point in the race where Justin is going to have to answer a hard question where the answer will have to be more than a recital of Hamlet. It will happen during the leadership debates, and the first one to challenge Justin will be attacked mercilessly by the media that rarely finds anything to criticise liberals for.
- Garneau has advanced in his career, not because of his ability, but because he was a by product of enforced bilingualism. He got put at the head of the line in Maritime Command because he was a francophone from Quebec, shortlisted as Canada's rep in the shuttle program, and made head of Canada's Space Agency for the same reason. Then he was given a nice safe seat to run in, Westmount, where a three toed sloth could win if he got the liberal nomination. Short answer is, that he was nominated not for any policy he advanced but because of his name...just like Justin...see a pattern here?
- The liberals are doing their damnedest to retain the unwritten rule of alternation. This is why you don't see any high profile candidates from outside of Quebec this go...and I'm sorry but Martha Hall Findlay is not high profile, she's the perennial female candidate that can be depended on to run so as to ensure there is a female candidate. There is no way to hide the fact that this is a coronation. Garneau isn't running because he thinks he can win, he's running because he was told to. They need someone with a high enough profile from Quebec so that Justin doesn't have to face a challenger from outside of Quebec, thereby taking the chance of an anglo winning the leadership again. Its the same reason they didn't want Rae running for leader, had nothing to do with his ability, and everything to do with the fact that he wasn't from Quebec.
- The political dynamic in Quebec and central Canada is starting to see a paradigm shift. The choice in Quebec was always one where the voters had one side telling them "better to tolerate a few corrupt liberal politicians, then having the threat of separation hanging over our heads" and the other side saying "separation, but not quite yet, besides its better than having liberal corruption". The elephant in the room was that the voter knew that both sides would be leveraging Ottawa to ante up because the ROC bought into the separatist threat. This dynamic has changed, the corruption is not only running through the established parties, but that its known to run through the established parties, and the ROC doesn't buy the separatist threat anymore. The end result is that Quebec voters realized they have a choice now. Last election they voted NDP, not because they thought the NDP would form government, but because they expected them to be king makers in a minority parliament. Then reality hit and they understood that Harper got his majority without them. That reality still holds, and whether the libs pick a francophone or not, as long as they spout of the angry rhetoric about Quebec owning the country, they should not expect to win any seats outside of Quebec.
- The first leadership contender that criticises Justin will be dog piled by the liberal media. The most likely perpetrator will be someone with blu-lib credentials, I'm betting on Garneau to be the one to do it.
- There will be many Youtube moments during the race which the conservatives will use for many a truth ad.
Labels: Diatribes and screed's
Has the main stream media gone Chris Mathews?
Reason I ask is that at the mere mention that Justin Trudeau intends to announce in a week that he intends to run for liberal leader, and the political punditry is falling over themselves to be the first one to give teh young prince a tongue bath.
That being said, I'd like to point out that the political and media landscape has changed quite drastically since 1965. Its also relevant to remember the political axiom that a politicians worst fears is being defined before they get the chance to define themselves. Justin let that cat out of thebag when he keeps insisting that he isn't his father. His problem is that there are a great many liberals, probably the majority of the ones that have convinced him he should be running for leader, that have expectations that he is to finish what his father started.
Shall I go down the list?
Lets see?
Two numbers come to mind, 13 and 22.
13 is what the unemployment rate was when Pierre was PM, and 22 is how high the prime interest rate went.
Lets not forget the imposition of the NEP and the capital flight out of the oil patch, or the repatriation of the Canada Act.
That last one is a third thanks to his father. However the scads and scads of liberal's that pine for the "good old days of being in power" are no doubt hanging that last bit of unfinished work as the holy grail in a mental list of what they expect St. Justin to achieve, namely to get Quebec to sign on to the constitution.
That one is the one thing that will cause the liberals to lose nay momentum they expect to get out of the shiny pony.
The reason is that in that game of finding out what Quebec wants is a game of diminshing returns.
The ROC came to the realization of what Quebec wants when the Charlottetown Accord got tabled.
Quebec wants an open ended deal where they can veto any legislation if it is not to their benefit.
Basically enshrining in the constitution that Canada is a power sharing agreement between Quebec and the ROC complete with the liberal rule of alternating between PM's from Quebec and the ROC (the ROC in this case meaning in and around the GTA).
Justin's predicament however doesn't restrict itself to just the holy grail, it extends to any and all the things his father did as PM, and all the failures. In ordere for Justin to redefine himself he has to become his father's worst critic, he has to admit that mistakes where made, otherwise Justin will be defined by his own party as the guy that is going to continue with his fathers agenda.
And trust me on this, the conservatives are prepared to remind Canadian's what PET did.
You know, like the numbers 13 and 22?
Labels: Liberal leadership race
Opposition leadership race
With the admission from Bob Rae that he won't run for the leadership the media is now turning its attention elsewhere. Here are some observations about the political landscape:
- We are not even half way through the current mandate of a majority government, lots of time between now and the next election. No amount of political manoeuvring by the opposition will cause an election, and to pretend otherwise will put the collective intelligence of the opposition in question, particularly whether they know how to add. This applies more so to the media.
- There are some pundits and media that have a soft spot for the old liberal party (as opposed to what it has become) and they make no effort to balance their reporting and commentary. I make this observation to base another that as of the moment that Bare-assed Bob confirmed he won't run for the leadership, these same legacy liberals immediately put the spot light on Justin Trudeau. They should keep their cards close to their chest, first Justin does not want to be scrutinized to much and provide a youtube moment for his critics or those that also have ambitions to become liberal leader.
- As for the young prince. As we are about to enter the summer recess, there are many in the Parliamentary Press gallery that will be desperately casting about for stories with a political connection and a party leadership race can keep them busy (and justifying a pay cheque) until the House reconvenes in the fall. Of those, all but a few actually, there is a desire to see a liberal saviour come to the fore and bring back the good old days. Again, the media shills looking to pave the way for another wave of "trudeaumania" should curb their expectations if they want him as liberal leader, or for that matter PM. The reason is that right now the only thing Justin can attest to as his legacy is that he will jump into the boxing ring for a three round charity event. Makes good photo-ops, however a photo-op is something you use for emotional appeal. This is a short term strategy, gets people paying attention so you can tell them what your plans as a candidate actually are....and this for liberals in the good old days was effective, because as long as you had a compliant media, the bad stuff, and the things you didn't want published either got relegated to the back pages or not reported at all. In a media environment where youtube, instant messaging, and blogs exist, this is not such a friendly environment to say different things to different parts of the country. The other detriment to the liberals of a Trudeau reboot is that Justin will be forced to campaign on the policies and record of his father. All the Trudeau record. At that time the majority of voters couldn't see the harm he was causing because the after effects came long after he left office. Now this may seem like an obvious observation, however I'm not looking at this from the point of view of the usual criticisms from the ROC, I'm pointing out that there is blow back that will come from Quebec. Do not underestimate Mucliar. The NDP will not willingly surrender its gains in Quebec even if the next liberal leader was a reincarnation of Karl Marx. If Mucliar perceived a weakness in the liberal party, he will exploit it. This includes using the past record of PET if it will damage Justin in Quebec. So if the media shilling for Justin as the next saviour (tm) they should understand the attacks won't be coming so much from the conservatives, but from the NDP...especially in Quebec.
- There is a recurring question in the media and the punditry about the possibility of the NDP and the lpc merging into one party. One pundit has suggested this issue would be even more divisive than the civil war between Chretien and Martin. Although I would agree with the premise that it would cause more damage, I disagree that its would be a new war. This battle has been going on since Mackenzie-King was leader of the liberal party. The object has been to obtain and hold power by any means necessary, to do that the liberals would dance with any political partner, present it as a compromise, say different things to different factions of the party, and never let one interest group take full control of the party apparatus except the establishment fortresses in Montreal and Toronto. This included bringing individuals into the party with beliefs not conducive to our parliamentary traditions, even those with a socialist bent, not to adopt their policies, but because they could secure the votes in constituencies where no support for the liberal party existed or was weak. The bringing in of these individuals was done on the caveat that they could achieve their goals if they joined up with a party that had a chance of forming government, and not to worry about the "old fogies" in the party because they could be shepherded into the senate to get them out of the way. Again works great if you have a compliant media and the different stories for different riding's never gets heard across the country. Welcome to the Internet age. The liberals sold their soul long ago, and because of it the hard left in the party is now calling in the mortgage. They voted liberal, they got liberal governments elected, now they want a socialist government to implement all the goodies socialists promise, but have yet to deliver...free of charge of course. Digress a bit, the point is that the civil war in the liberal party isn't between two men fighting over the leadership, its about the socialist faction that was promised power in exchange for votes, and the establishment blu-lib faction that wants to retain power in the Toronto-Montreal corridor. For the blu-lib faction, a merger with the NDP is an option without an escape hatch, a burning of the bridge so to speak. They know and the socialists know that once done, the voter they like to refer to as "centrist" will see the new party as decidedly left wing, read not centrist. Therefore, those centrist voters are less likely to see the new party as a viable option. Secondly, a merger would create a political landscape of a two-party system, no mushy middle to present as a compromise position to the voter...liberals like to be able to present themselves as all things to all people..or there isn't one policy they would throw under the bus, or adopt in a heart beat if they saw public opinion going in that direction. In the liberals strategy book, resolving a problem is not the goal, using the problem as an emotional device to scare voters is. If you have a political landscape where the choice is yes or no, there is no middle ground to campaign on. That's why the liberal establishment doesn't want a merger, they would have to take a position, and in this scenario, its the socialist one. Why is this a problem? Take a look at Europe. If the question of a merger keeps coming up during the leadership race, the candidates will have to take a position. Basically outing themselves as either blu-lib, or socialist. Neither position is seen by the other as centrist after the decades of demonizing conservative or right wing policies by liberals and its legacy media. The socialist types will say the blu-libs are sell outs to the vision of trudeau and the blu-libs will say the socialists are too extremist to represent the liberal vision. The irony is that the liberal vision is not defined...they have spent so long being everything to everyone that now they stand for nothing.
- As for Bob Rae. The reason he decided not to run is political, as he said, not me. Let me parse that a bit. The political reason he decided not to run is the poll numbers. He can't generate enough support to revive the liberal party outside its current fortress. They believe someone else, lets say Justin, has a better chance. He's also not a "native son" of Quebec, and that's where they want to revive their party. Pay attention to whats going to happen in Quebec as the old rule of alternation is about to collide with the OMOV selection process. In order to maintain the alternation between franco and anglo leaders, the liberal party needs to control the selection process by maintaining the delegated convention with its "negotiated" leadership method. In a OMOV those that can bring the most votes, win the day. If the lpc allows the membership to use OMOV to go ahead, but the process is perceived to be corrupted, the membership and the voters at large will not see the new leader (no matter who it is) as legitimate, which will do far more damage than good. If the franco membership that sees its power base eroding to the west does not win the leadership, they will be considering membership where the party leadership is a native son. Bob saw this and knew that as an anglo-phone from Ontario, he couldn't gain support in Quebec. For that reason he decided not to run, regardless of what the executive decided on. The LPC is praying that enough prominent candidates from Quebec throw their hat in the ring so that 1-It doesn't look like a another coronation, and 2-the next leader is from Quebec.
So in review the observations are:
- The media is going to be desperate for a story.
- Every word and gesture of Justin Trudeau will be given laser like scrutiny.
- The NDP will be working to undermine anyone in the liberal party they see as a threat.
- The NDP-lib merger will solidify Canada as a two-party state (too bad lizzy may).
- The liberals will do almost anything to ensure their next leader is from Quebec.
Should be a fun summer.
Some day soon I'll post another screed on how Justin is trying to convince the great unwashed of the liberal party he's the anti-establishment candidate.
Labels: Liberal leadership race
